Four Parties


  Back to politics page.



  Date: October, 2004

 

  Our country used to have a two-party system. But the elections of 2004 suggest that the two parties have split into 4 parties. Let's call the 4 parties the nD, sD, nR, and sR, for Northern Democrats, Southern Democrats, Northern Republicans, and Southern Republicans.
  The nD have liberal social values, and a conservative fiscal policy. They believe in a foreign policy emphasizing cooperation and international community. John Kerry was clearly a nD, as was John Edwards.
  The nR tend to have liberal social values, and a fiscal policy that looks more like the Reagan era, where we can run up the debt to stimulate the economy. The nR generally support the war and other elements of the Bush policy. Republicans like Arlen Specter and Susan Collins represent the nR.
  The sR have conservative social values, with the Republican fiscal policy. Bill Frist is a sR.
  Finally, the sD has conservative social values, with the Democratic fiscal policy. Zell Miller was an example of an sD.
  The abortion issues and issues of faith have driven the parties apart. Zell Miller's speech at the Republican convention showed the split between the nD and the sD. In fact, the sD is more closely aligned with the sR than the nD.
  Even among the Republicans, the nR and the sR are proving difficult to fit together. The recent battle over Arlen Specter has shown the deepening divide.
  It is interesting that the parties are not entirely split by geography. For example, there are many voters in Illinois who would feel more comfortable with the sD party than with the nR party. They may oppose the war, and feel upset about the economy. However, because of their views of social issues, they feel compelled to vote for the nR party.
  In a multiparty system, the challenge is to form a coalition. President Bush was able to win by forming a coalition party including the sD, the nR, and the sR. John Kerry was limited to the nD. Had he convinced more Republicans that the war was a disasterous mistake, Kerry could have appealed to the nR. However, with his social policy, Kerry was unable to appeal to the sD and the sR.
  In the future, we can expect the sD and the sR to share the Southern states, and the nD and the nR to share the Northern states. But how can the Democrats form a coalition that includes the sD and the sR?
  It may be that on issues such as religion and abortion, the Democrats will have to "narrowcast". That is, these issues could become legislated by individual states. In South Carolina, the laws may be different than in Illinois. The Democrats could also pick a sD for their VP. Such an approach is necessary to form a national coalition party.